Monday, May 18, 2020

Spanish Flu and Covid-19

I have seen this meme circulating pretty often online, with many of my friends- people who are good and kind and who want the best for humanity- posting it.

The argument basically is that lockdowns are necessary since the Spanish Flu- which did indeed kill millions around the globe- came in several waves and the second was most deadly. I guess the idea is that if the Lockdowns are maintained, less people will die.

However, this argument has a major flaw.

The Spanish Flu eventually disappeared, yes.
However, it did not disappear because of a vaccine. There was none developed. There wasn’t even a cure developed.

What happened is that hundreds of millions if not billions of people around the world got sick- and 20 million died- before eventually natural immunity was developed. A vaccine didn’t stop it. Neither did a medication. Natural immunity did.

Lockdowns didn’t ensure less people died. They only delayed the inevitable, because people in these regions eventually got the disease anyways from others.

That is also a “lesson of history”, and one that the meme did not point out.

Covid19 is a Coronavirus. The previous 2 deadly ones that circulated among human beings were SARS and MERS. There have been no vaccines or medications developed for them either.

The solution isn’t to follow a Swedish model and do more or less nothing and allow people to just catch it and die. No, I am not advocating this.

The solution in my view is to do what Taiwan and South Korea and Iceland are doing- mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantining of the sick... along with sensible social distancing that takes precautions but isn’t shutting down the entire economy. That is an approach that is clearly working both at keeping people alive, and at making sure they don’t get forced into poverty.

Putting entire nations under lockdowns and shut downs, and robbing hundreds of millions of people around the world of their jobs and the means to make a living for themselves and their families is not only destructive but it is also murderous. People in some parts of the world are already starving to death due to this. In other parts, they are getting evicted from their homes or having to skip meals in order to pay rent. There is a mental health crisis happening and there are suicides as people who can’t handle the pressure are breaking. Not only this, but after the Lockdowns come to an end, millions will have no jobs to go back to. This will only increase poverty and stress, and related deaths.

Canadian and American governments could have chosen to invest in developing mass tests. They chose not to. Instead, they chose to continue building weapons and pipelines. They also told us not to bother wearing face masks. Then, when this thing spread, they more or less shut down large sections of the economy, driving tens of millions of people into joblessness and poverty.
This isnt only happening in Canada and USA, it is also being replicated on a global scale.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

https://www.bcm.edu/departments/molecular-virology-and-microbiology/emerging-infections-and-biodefense/sars-virus



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